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  Latest Economics Events

  • EMU: Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing: 49.000 (FXstreet.com: Latest Economics Events)
  • EMU: Purchasing Manager Index Services: 49.400 (FXstreet.com: Latest Economics Events)
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Preliminary retail sales in Germany released this morning show a surprise fall of 0.3% in retail sales for December. The EU’s largest economy had been expected to post a 1.9% increase compared to the previous month. EU CPI estimates are also released this morning which will provide a clearer picture of inflation in the euro [...]

 
Are the markets really comparing the chances of an interest rate rise in the Euro zone with the chances of a rise in the UK or US? 
So what is Germany’s inflation is growing – there are 21 other states to consider (Inc the principalities). Spain has 20% unemployment! 
Whilst inflation can be measured in each EU [...]

If the ECB were to raise rates quicker than the BOE this has the potential to weigh on the GBP against the EUR although it is worth pointing out that the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis has still not been fully extinguished.

Sterling has managed to claw back some of the losses it made following the shocking GDP data on Tuesday. This was helped on part by the release of the minutes from the last Bank of England policy decision which showed another member had joined Andrew Sentance in calling for a 0.25% rise in rates. Should [...]

European equity markets closed lower yesterday, with the UK’s surprise 0.5% fall in GDP in the fourth quarter helping to sour sentiment. While the ONS estimated that 0.5 percentage points of the drop was related to the cold weather in December, that would still leave the underlying position of the economy flat compared to Q3. [...]

Initially coming under pressure versus the dollar yesterday, the euro spiked higher before the close of the day’s trading, climbing back to near two month highs overnight against the Dollar. Higher eurozone interest rates (on the back of relatively hawkish comments from the ECB’s head Trichet as well as upbeat eurozone data) helped push the [...]

Tomorrow’s UK GDP for the fourth quarter will be a key input into the developing debate on whether the central bank will decide to raise interest rates soon to head off a rise in inflation expectations

stronger than expected Chinese growth further fuelled speculation of monetary policy tightening from Beijing as they try to pull the reins in on the country’s runaway growth.

 
After extending its rally to a two month high of $1.35 overnight, the euro’s rebound versus the dollar appears to have run into some resistance as traders look to take profits on recent moves. Risk appetite was also hit by a disappointing earnings report from Goldman Sachs (company earnings, not it’s employees…), as well as [...]

Unsurprisingly, markets, and the wider public, are now almost concrete in their belief of an imminent raising of interest rates in the first half of the year…

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