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Ahead of the Bank Holiday weekend on Monday, markets continue to trade quietly with all eyes watching Fed Chair Bernanke’s speech this afternoon. Although France, Italy, Spain and Belgium reaffirmed their short-selling ban on financial stocks, equity markets are still lower and we doubt that much risk will be placed in London this afternoon.
We do [...]

The IFO survey, which measures the views of 7,000 executives in Germany, showed business confidence falling quicker than expected in August. However, after the significant drop in the ZEW survey the day before, the general feeling was that the reading could have been a lot worse. The survey reading of 108.7 was also still significantly [...]

The Flash European PMI reading for August showed signs of stagnation in the third quarter for the Euro zone. Manufacturing has started to contract, dropping below 50, and business expectations saw a significant drop. This suggests that there could be some down side risk to the initial flash estimate. However, the general feeling was one [...]

2011 Q3
2011 Q4
2012 Q1
2012 Q2

GBP vs

Eurozone (EUR)
1.16
1.15
1.15
1.15

US (USD)
1.65
1.66
1.66
1.66

Canada (CAD)
1.57
1.61
1.66
1.66

Switzerland (CHF)
1.28
1.32
1.38
1.38

Sweden (SEK)
10.56
10.35
10.24
10.12

Norway (NOK)
8.82
8.63
8.57
8.51

Japan (JPY)
125
119
119
119

Hong Kong (HKD)
12.87
12.95
12.95
12.95

China (CNY)
10.56
10.54
10.46
10.38

India (INR)
71.78
69.72
69.72
69.72

Australia (AUD)
1.73
1.74
1.74
1.84

New Zealand (NZD)
2.09
2.1
2.1
2.1

Market forecasts typically prove to be unreliable – BUT whilst they should not be relied upon they should certainly be considered when making the decision to actually buy a given curreny at any time or indeed buy [...]

The relief rally in equities continued yesterday, with Wall Street welcoming a better than expected Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Given that last week’s Philly Fed survey has destroyed confidence, Wall Street managed to close slightly up on the day, ending last week’s rout. Asian stocks rallied by over 1% and European bourses should rally [...]

Angela Merkel seems intent on ignoring the markets whilst dealing with the Euro zone debt crisis. Last week, at a meeting between Germany and France both leaders defied the markets idea of a common Euro bond, which led to dramatic drops in the world’s stock markets and Euro weakness. Then yesterday Angela Merkel announced that [...]

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2011/mpc1108.pdf
2 memebers that voted for a rate rise last month have chnaged their stance to keep rates on hold – lower interest rate expectation great for mortgages but poor for GBP . GBP/EUR 1.1375 GBP/USD 1.6360 (At time of writing) down 0.7%.

The minutes of the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Comittee (MPC) meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about [...]

The star performer amongst the western industrialised world, Germany, released GDP figures this morning that showed the economy had ground to a practical standstill in the second quarter, with GDP increasing by 0.1% against expectations of 0.5%. The statistics office stated that the slowdown was caused by a shrinking trade balance, flagging consumption and weak [...]

France, Italy, Spain and Belgium, have imposed a ban on the short selling of financial stocks in a co-ordinated attempt to restore confidence to the market. However, a similar move by US banks in 2008 was questioned by several academic studies, which stated that the banning of short selling rarely achieves its objectives. This morning [...]

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