Friday’s release of US GDP for the first three months of this year provided substantial evidence that the momentum in the economy has slowed since the beginning of the year. Markets had been expecting growth at 2.5%, however, the release was disappointing at 2.2% quarter-on-quarter annualised. As a result GBP/USD pushed past 1.6300 before falling back a fraction.
The euro slipped to $1.3160 against the US dollar this morning, marking a 1¢ loss from yesterday. GBP/EUR fell to £1.2285, reaching a low last seen in June 2010. The euro looks set to remain on the defensive ahead of this morning’s Italian bond auction. The government is looking to issue 4-year, 5-year, 7-year and [...]
Yesterday’s poor UK GDP number failed to materially affect Sterling. An initial correction was clear, nonetheless short lived. Cable (GBP/USD) retraced to the 1.6080 level but find itself at 1.6180 this morning. Against the euro sterling, lost a lot more ground initially, a consequence of GDP data coupled with overall strengthening in the euro. All [...]
Domestically, a big day lies ahead with the release of UK Q1 GDP data. The market is split on the outlook for growth. The consensus forecast is for the economy to grow by 0.1% on the quarter, but amongst that distribution is a range from -0.3% to +0.4% which shows how uncertain the outlook is. [...]
Short and sweet, we find ourselves in much the same position as yesterday; The Netherlands’ AAA rating now apparently under threat after the government collapsed due to an inability to agree to austerity measures. GBP/EUR is trading around 1.2255 having tested 1.2270 overnight.
Excluding financial sector interventions, we expect public sector net borrowing to rise by [...]
Although the IMF managed to extract an additional $430 billion in funding during the IMF / World Bank Spring Meetings, this reflects a small climb down from the original target of $600 billion. The US still refuses to contribute additional money and there were a series of comments from non-European governments that Europe needed to [...]
Focus will be on today’s (and through the weekend) IMF/World Bank/G-20 Finance ministers and Central Bankers meeting in Washington with the core discussions likely to centre on the ongoing eurozone crisis. Yesterdays Spanish bond auctions did little to change the mood of the market and the overnight price action suggests that the same tone will [...]
Having fallen below 1.2200 for the first time in 19 months GBP/EUR continued to ease overnight, trading initially around 1.2225 before improving to 1.2250 ahead of the London open. The move reflected general sterling strength with cable rising from $1.59 to $1.6050. Euro-dollar traded in a narrow range around $1.3120 overnight.
Spain is due to auction [...]
Spanish 10-year yields fell back below 6% yesterday and have eased lower to 5.817% this morning. There have been a number of speeches from Spanish officials overnight and this morning commenting on the fact that Spain’s fiscal deficit reduction targets should change market perception. Spain did manage to raise €3.18 billion in 12 and 18-month [...]
The markets remained focus on the Eurozone yesterday as stresses intensified around the sovereign debt market.
Moody’s the US credit agency announced that they were delaying their much anticipated announcement on whether to downgrade the credit ratings on 114 banks until May, increasing fears of bank downgrades in 16 European countries.
As Spain acknowledged that it has probably fallen back [...]