Brexit is Brexit, But what does that mean?

Friday’s Final UK Q3 GDP reading printed in line with estimates, showing growth of 0.5 percent while the annual increase was unchanged at 2.3 percent. Investment data beat expectations with a 0.9 percent quarterly gain indicating that Brexit has not, so far, harmed investment.

Retail sales data was also stronger than expected with an increase partly due to cold weather driving winter clothing sales. Black Friday sales are expected to beat previous years’ records again.

Against the Euro, the Pound hit levels of 1.1764 on Friday and held above 1.2400 against the Dollar. Lower oil prices have caused ripples for GBPUSD, as it struggled to sustain a move above 1.2500 this morning. The political uncertainty continues with fresh arguments over whether the UK leaving the EU means leaving the Single Market as well.

The Euro overall stabilised around the 1.0600 level against the Dollar in the very early hours of this morning as Fillon won the election to be the French centre-right candidate in next year’s Presidential election. The Euro will still be suffering from short-term concerns surrounding the Italian referendum undermining sentiment.

The October US Goods Trade Deficit was wider than expected with a US$62.0bn shortfall after a revised deficit of $56.5bn the previous month after exports declined. The data triggered downward revisions to the fourth quarter GDP estimates and there were also concerns that the strong Dollar would have an adverse impact on future trade data.

There was a slight decline in the November PMI services-sector index to 54.7 from 54.8, although this was still the second highest reading of 2016 as the ending of political uncertainty helped boost sentiment. There were also subdued readings for inflation, potentially dampening pressure for a faster pace of Fed policy tightening.

Data to watch: 2pm ECB’s Draghi speech. 3.30pm US November Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.

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