Can Sterling Bounce Back?
The strength of the US Dollar continues to drive the market and although yesterday was as quiet as ever for the day following the nonfarm payrolls data, we saw a bit of profit taking as people now look ahead to the Fed’s statement on Thursday. Sterling has been suffering for 3 months against the Dollar and bounced off its lows yesterday but really needs better than expected Industrial Production data to get things moving in the right direction again. Whilst everyone is bullish for the Dollar at the moment, things can change very quickly if results out of the US soften and we see lower growth forecasts.
The Japanese Economy took centre stage last night as the Bank of Japan announced that it would keep monetary policy steady and that it was gradually recovering. Positive growth was expected in Q3 and the QQE programme would continue until the 2% inflation target was reached.
The Eurozone continues to struggle as German Industrial Production declined by 2.8% in August compared with a 2.7% increase the previous month. It appears that the sanctions against Russia are really hitting the economy hard. Prime Minister Cameron welcomed his French counterpart Manuel Valls to London yesterday. Valls bemoaned the British Press’ depiction of the French economy saying it was not too dissimilar from the UK economy. On this matter, I hope he didn’t see a particular guest on Bloomberg yesterday morning as he would have been less than impressed. Boosting economic growth and restoring competitiveness were key objectives.
Main news out today from the UK is industrial production and manufacturing production. Later on we have speeches from the Fed’s Koncherlakota and Dudley and former chief Ben Bernanke.