Clinton Trumps FBI Charges
Hillary Clinton was gifted a huge fillip in the race to the White House when the investigation into her handling of emails was dropped. The FBI have announced “we have not changed our conclusions” when referring to their initial decision that Clinton had been careless, but not criminal.
As a result, the Dollar is currently reversing last week’s Pound gains which were instigated by a mildly hawkish Bank of England and the High Court ruling. Today sees the Fed’s Labour Market Conditions Index. However, the presidential elections are expected to dictate the sentiment in the global markets over the next 48 hours, with the Dollar benefitting from Clinton’s lead in the polls.
The UK Government is expected to provide an official response to the High Court’s decision on Parliamentary consent for triggering Article 50. There is some expectation that the Government will appeal to the Supreme Court and Jeremy Corbyn has pledged Labour’s support if the Government will prioritise retaining access to the single market.
On Friday, GBPEUR was confined between narrow ranges as Sterling regained its strength. Versus the Dollar, movements were much more bullish due to the close race to the finish of the US election tomorrow. Whether it is a Trump or Clinton win, we will expect a fair amount of volatility caused by investors seeking safe havens.
Eurozone Markit Services and Composite PMI’s fell below consensus for October. Producer Price Indices for September reported a modest monthly increase and the annualised rate showed the speed of decline slowed.
Data to watch: Eurogroup Meeting. 3pm US Labor Market Conditions Index. 8pm US Consumer Credit Change. 11.50pm UK BRC Like for Like Retail Sales.