Danes Cut Interest Rates But Retain The Peg
Good morning. As the US paid their respects to Martin Luther King Jr yesterday, the ECB had a bit of respite as the Danish Central Bank did not follow its Swiss counterpart’s lead and their peg to the Euro remained firmly in place. The Danes did, however, surprise the market by reducing both the deposit and lending rates by 15bp to 0.20% and +0.05% respectively. It is unlikely that this is the last we hear of the interest rate cuts, so watch this space!
Data out of China last night was better than feared as industrial production came in above estimates, annual retail sales grew and fixed asset investment was steady. None of this stopped the IMF from revising its global growth forecast down to 3.5% for 2015 from its previous estimate of 3.8%.
In Europe, Greece and QE are still the headlines. Grexit looks increasingly likely as three separate opinion polls showed that the opposition Syriza Party are extending their lead and are now in front by anything from 4 to 6.5 points. With the election taking place on 25th January, things are going to get interesting.
It is now being taken as read that Mario Draghi will introduce Quantitative Easing on Thursday, and the figures being bandied around are €700-750m which should allow the ECB to maximise flexibility and credibility.
Sterling is on the back foot at the moment with a rate hike not being on the horizon, growth momentum slowing, the uncertainty of a general election and inflationary pressures.
The main data releases today are economic sentiment from Germany and housing market index from the US.