ECB Rate Decision Today
Yesterdays German factory orders surprising to the upside in May, with a 1.8% increase, which was solely driven by domestic demand, comes as no real surprise. The more worrying data in the reading is that there was a significant drop off in foreign demand, which points towards a continuing soft patch for global trade. Despite this positive data, the Euro weakened against both the USD and Sterling, as, peripheral debt fears continued to weigh on the single currency.
In the UK house prices rose by 1.2% in June from the previous month, according to the Halifax house price index. The quarterly reading, which removes some of the volatility, however, was still down 0.5% and prices were 3.5% lower than this time a year ago. Halifax is putting the increase down to the increase in employment seen in recent months, and the fact that interest rates are expected to remain at historically low levels for the foreseeable future.
ISM manufacturing in the US surprised to the down side yesterday and, revealed the same trend seen in recent PMI survey in the UK and Europe that growth remains, but forward looking indicators show that future weakness could be seen in the service sector.
Today sees the ECB interest rate announcement, where a 0.25% hike is widely expected, after Trichet’s June press conference, where the magic words ‘strong vigilance’ were used. The more interesting aspect today will be the press conference, where some direction may be provided on future tightening and questions may be answered on the peripheries debt crisis. The MPC also announces it rate decision today where no change is expected, of more interest will be the minutes, which are released in two weeks where any change to voting patterns will be revealed.
Today will also see the release of; UK industrial production for May, where a 1.1% rise is expected with some down side risk. There is also a Spanish bond auction where demand will be monitored for signs of contagion in the European periphery.
What does this all mean for me? Well buying your EUR, USD, AUD or any other currency at the wrong time could cost you a fortune. There is no crystal ball but Currency UK can give you the information you need to make an informed decision.