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Euro at the top of the tree

Euro at the top of the tree

As Christmas Day draws ever closer, it would seem that the only thing stirring us is the Euro. The bloc currency has been simmering away, proving just how resilient it is. After a long year of negativity, the once forsaken economy’s woes have either simply been forgotten or the news of a recovery is being taken with great confidence.

Data was fairly light on the ground yesterday, however, the data we did receive from Germany showed further signs of stability in what has been a troublesome year for Europe’s largest economy. Producer Price Index figures were published showing they had met analysts best forecasts.

As with the financial markets, we need to look at what could be occurring on the opposite side of the coin. Political uncertainty has now become evident in the Spanish elections because no party was able to get a majority vote. We have to consider whether this political uncertainty could rekindle some fears amongst market participants, particularly as Spain have been the economy with the largest recovery rate across the bloc.

Price action was at a premium for much of the day with a distinct lack of sharp movements to capitalise on. The Euro was the main beneficiary of this, pushing the US Dollar back above 1.09 by the close of play and taking another 0.6% of value from Sterling. In contrasting fashion, GBP/USD reached an 8 month low, and many feel this trend is set to continue.

As we look ahead to today, the main focus is going to be Stateside as we witness the release of US GDP at 1:30pm with relatively conservative forecasts set at the previous figures for both the month and year respectively. Aside from that, we do have some more German data at 7:00am which could attract some interest. All in all, the ranges are expected to continue to contract whilst trends remain the same.

Data to watch: 7am GER Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jan). 9.30am UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Oct). 1.30pm US Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3) & GDP Annualized,  Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (Quarter on Quarter & Core) (Q3). 2pm US Housing Price Index (Month on Month) (Oct).

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