Euro could recover further
The Euro has managed to claw back some of its recent losses against the USD in the run up to the ECB announcement this afternoon. It’s not that anyone expects a rate rise, far from it, but there are rumours that the ECB may announce measures to help resolve the eurozone debt crisis. The central bank is also due to give an update on its growth figures for 2011 which could shed some light on their position going forward.
The USD has been making some decent gains recently and not all of it has been due to weakness in Europe. The USD gained against 11 of its major peers partly due to tensions in the Korean peninsula leading to safe haven demand but also in part to a more positive outlook on the employment front and tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll data could help the greenback cement these recent gains.
Sterling was given a nice boost yesterday as Novembers PMI data for manufacturing came in much higher than expected, in fact it came in at a 16 years high with will be heralded as a definite sign that the UK recovery is underway. UK PMI for manufacturing came in at 58, the highest result since September 1994 up from 55.4 in October. We also have the PMI for construction today and for services out tomorrow, if these also comes in at the high end it will prove very positive to Sterling and the UK economy as a whole and hopefully means the recovery will have enough momentum to drag it through the first quarter of next year when the VAT increase and austerity measures are going to take effect.
We do have quite a bit of data out today but the definite highlight will be what the ECB come out with and the Euro will probably be a little more range bound in the run up to the announcement. This afternoon we also have the US initial jobless claims giving us a clue as to what the Non-farm payrolls, which are announced tomorrow, may show. With all this data out and an already choppy market it looks like the rest of the week could be reasonably volatile and if the ECB get it right today we could see more of a recovery in the Euro.