Euro likely to remain under pressure
Sterling climbed versus both the Dollar and the Euro yesterday morning, clawing back from a three-week low ahead of a packed week of economic data releases that is expected to show a tightening on the country’s consumers. The rises pushed the Pound back to $1.24 and 1.1720 against the Euro, this came despite signs that UK households are becoming more cautious about their spending. Figures from credit card firm Visa showed both a dip in monthly spending in March and the weakest quarterly rate since 2013.
Trading was very subdued through the day yesterday as is often the case on the Monday following the monthly US Employment report. The Eurozone index of consumer confidence strengthened to 23.9 for April from 20.7 previously which was above consensus expectations and the strongest reading since August 2007.
Despite this and positive talk from ECB member Vitor Constancio stating that the economic recovery is progressing and gaining momentum, the Euro still slipped towards key support levels of 1.05. Much of the move was due to the stronger greenback sentiment in the wake of a sharp fall in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.5%. Narrow ranges are thought to be a sign of things to come.
Apart from German Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) economic sentiment due today, forecasted at 13.2 up from previous posting of 12.8, there is no higher tier data due to be released this week before the extended break for Easter.
The Dollar edged lower yesterday as U.S. Treasury yields dipped and traders consolidated Friday’s gains on low volume to start the holiday-shortened U.S. trading week.
Investors were trading cautiously yesterday. According to analysts, this was due to forthcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later on Monday, as well as the release of U.S. retail sales data and a reading on consumer sentiment later this week.
Data to Watch: 9:30am GBP Producer Price Index – Output (MoM), PPI – Input (YoY), PPI – Output (YoY), PPI Core Output (MoM), PPI Core Output (YoY), PPI – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Mar), Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar), Consumer Price Index (MoM) (YoY) (Mar). 10:00am EUR GER ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Apr), ZEW Survey – Current Situation (Apr). 10:00am Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Feb), IP w.d.a. (YoY) (Feb), ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Apr). 6:00pm USD 10-year Note Auction.