The GBP has continued to see a see-saw motion as the trends from the last two days continue. The USD has retreated further still and this pushed the GBP to even higher highs during the trading day yesterday. All the key elements we talked about yesterday are still driving this movement. In essence, due to a considerable batch of negative economic data from the States, the perception of a potential interest rate rise is being diluted.
The GBP/EUR, however, has lost some ground in just a few quick tumbles around data production (our weaker GDP figure for one). I think, personally, that there are a few things worth noting about the pullback of the Pound against the Euro. Overall, we are talking about pulling away from a high level of 1.4000 to retreat a few cents, but remain in the high 1.3000s….so hardly dire straits for the GBP/EUR and I do agree with David Cameron’s comments on the GDP figure. That many, he highlights, Eurozone nations would ‘give their eye teeth for’ the rate that we are growing at and one quarter in isolation should not be considered a time for wailing and gnashing of teeth.
To get a clear picture of the relative strengths of the currencies, we can examine the triangle of the EUR, GBP and USD. On one side, EURUSD: EUR surging against the Dollar. In the middle, GBP/EUR: weakens but just a little. On the other side, GBP/USD: GBP surging against the Dollar.
Today we have a fair amount of economic data with the potential to push and pull the rates a bit. German Unemployment was a good figure released as I was writing this. Next of consequence we have the EUR Economic Bulletin and Unemployment rate and then Consumer Price Index – these come all at once and have the potential to be market movers for sure. After that we have a range of, ordinarily mildly impactful, USD data. However, given the poor Non-Farm Payroll figure for the States, if they added a poor Continuing Jobless Claim and Personal Income figure this could provide more reversal for their currency strength.