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GBP falls with Q4 GDP revision

GBP falls with Q4 GDP revision

The most market-moving release this morning was the final estimate of UK Q4 GDP. At -0.3% the revision is lower than expectations which will has already proved to be negative for GBP, falling significantly versus EUR and USD this morning.

The market is looking for US durable goods orders to rise by 3.0% in February, buoyed by another good month for Boeing orders and also the lessening of ripples caused by the expiration of the 100% capital tax deduction on 31st December. That caused a plunge in orders in January which we expect to start to unwind in February causing a temporary boost this month. But with aircraft orders doing most of the heavy lifting, the rise in orders excluding transportation will be much smaller. The market is looking for a 1.7% rise but it could easily be as low as 1% instead.

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