Happy 4th of July to our US counterparts
With the US holidays limiting market moves, the GBP seems to be trading in between 1.2590 and 1.2550 overnight and in the early trading hours this morning,
On the political front, both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, continue to appear on various hustings and claim to be superior over the other. Both candidates are now trying to create an image that can offer fewer harms during the no-deal Brexit. However, the frontrunner Boris Johnson remains fierce and promises to cut short the government departs to save the expenses if he becomes the Prime Minister.
The Dollar had a quiet Wednesday in anticipation of Thursday’s 4th of July celebrations. As markets now look towards the NFPs on Friday, this could force the Federal Reserve, depending on the outcome, to cut interest rates for the 1st time in over a decade. A positive figure is still unlikely to buoy the Dollar as expectations of a rate cute are strong, given low inflation and the fall out from the tariffs the US and China have already imposed on each other’s goods.
The Euro continues to trade below the 1.13 against the dollar, having faced rejections above this level over the last couple of trading days and currently sits in a range with lows of 1.1270.
On the docket today we have Euro-Zone Retail sales data being released. A better than expected number may see a sharp rise and a possible break above the 1.13. This, however, could be short-lived as shorting after the release, European Central Bank’s vice president De Guindos is making a speech and any dovish rhetoric may force the Euro back down.
Data to watch:
01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (May)
06:30 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
07:00 EUR ECB’s Lane speech
09:00 EUR Retail Sales (YoY) (May)
09:10 EUR ECB’s De Guindos speech
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (Jun)
23:30 JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY) (May)