Huge volatility as Greece-Eurogroup stalemate continues
Yesterday’s newsletter was full of optimism that we may have seen a breakthrough between Greece and the Eurogroup, but it wasn’t to be. The Eurozone and IMF rejected the latest Greek proposal and are demanding several reforms which would negate Tsipras’ pre-election promises. A Grexit is still on the cards and this is certainly going to be a bumpy ride both in and out of Greece for PM Tsipras and his Syriza Party.
The much anticipated summit of European Finance Ministers takes place today and the markets will take their lead from any news that is leaked out. This is to be followed by a meeting between Tsipras and Jean-Claude Juncker and it is anticipated that further discussions tomorrow may well be necessary. As there is not a huge amount of European or UK data released today, we should again expect huge volatility. If a deal is agreed expect the Euro to strengthen in the short-term due to the reduction of risk. If nothing is agreed expect weakness.
The US Dollar has been a major beneficiary of a lack of data from the Eurozone and UK and the increase of risk in the marketplace. On the back of the impending rate cuts and increasingly impressive jobs data we could expect this to continue as more data comes out of the US. However, there are still certain aspects of the US economy holding it back.
Whilst talk of a Grexit looms large, there is also the issue of the Brexit in the background as David Cameron is also discussing EU reforms for the UK before a possible referendum.