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Media muddle over coming or going

Media muddle over coming or going

Sterling hit fresh lows against its major rivals yesterday as next week’s referendum continues to cripple the Pound. There was some confusion as an ICM poll was released showing the “Remain” camp with a solid lead. The Pound spiked as a result, however the poll turned out to be last week’s result.

When the true poll showed the “Leave” campaign 6 points ahead, the Pound reversed against the Greenback and the pair consolidated around the 1.4200 level. A YouGov poll published late Monday reported a 7-point lead for leave whilst another poll showed a 1-point lead. The differing results suggest a clear shift in polls over the past week, undermining the possibility of Sterling strength.

Unease surrounding the poll results continues; the Euro ranged between 1.2521 and 1.2693 yesterday as there are growing concerns that the Eurozone economy and the single currency will be left damaged by any UK vote to leave the EU. Leave votes tend to lower the risk appetite in the EU and strengthen the single currency. The Euro opened this morning at 1.2584 against the Pound. European industrial production data is out this morning with consensus set at 0.7%.

Across the pond, there were no significant data publications yesterday with investors looking at the US retail sales data later today ahead of the Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday. A weak retail sales figure would reinforce expectations that the US central bank will not be in a position to tighten policy anytime soon, whereas firm data would maintain the potential for a generally optimistic central bank.

Data to watch : 9.30am UK May Consumer Price Index (CPI). 10am Eurozone April Industrial Production. 12.30pm US May Retail Sales.

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