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Renzi not budging until budget

Renzi not budging until budget

UK services sector PMI rose to 55.2 in November, up from 54.5, the strongest reading for 11 months. Sterling gained from rises in oil prices as risk appetite improved, testing two-month highs of 1.2750 against the Dollar, whilst falling to 1.1800 versus the Euro.

Bank of England Governor Carney reiterated that the Bank would only tolerate a limited overshoot of the 2% inflation target. Carney added that growth was dependent on consumption, with demand likely to fade as real income growth ebbs. The underlying message seems to be that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would leave its policy on hold in an attempt to balance the trade-off between growth and inflation. Just after midnight, the BRC retail sales data recorded a gain of 0.6% in the year to November after a 1.7% gain previously.

There was a big jump in October German factory orders data, the Eurozone PMI data fell short of consensus and Sentix investor confidence printed slightly weaker than expected. However, the economic data was eclipsed by the ongoing Italian political drama. Outgoing Prime Minister Renzi was asked to postpone his departure for a few days, at least until the 2017 Budget Bill is passed. There was optimism that fresh elections would be avoided which helped support the Euro, enabling it to reach a two-week peak just below 1.0800 against the Dollar.

The US non-manufacturing PMI index strengthened to 57.2, a 13-month high. There was also a second successive gain in the labour market conditions index and confidence in the short-term growth outlook held firm.

Fed officials remained optimistic with expectations of a gradual increase in interest rates. There is still underlying caution beyond a December (14th) rate increase given uncertainty surrounding new economic policies.

The Dollar overall struggled to gain any traction and US bond yields declined from recent peaks with the currency correcting weaker by over 0.50% on a trade-weighted basis.

Data to watch: EUR Ecofin Meeting. 10am EUR GDP Q3, YoY, MoM. 1.30pm US Trade Balance. US Factory Orders MoM Oct.

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