The Long Good Monday
Good Monday morning and welcome to what could well be an action-packed week on the foreign exchange markets.
Whilst we have a 5 day week ahead of us, markets in Asia are closed for much of the week and on Thursday, the US takes a break for Labor Day. It may seem ironic to some that a day dedicated to the social and economic achievements of American workers results in a day off, but there you go…
There isn’t too much news expected out today but the markets, especially GBPUSD, are being moved by Pfizer making a bid for the UK’s Astra Zeneca. There were rumours around last week that this was going to happen but the confirmation of this move has seen a positive impact on GBP as it will bring large demand for the currency.
House prices are featuring heavily as well today as pending home sales stats are released in the US, which have a greater importance than normal after the poor new home sales report from last week. In the UK, house prices increased in April for a 15th consecutive month, as values rose by 0.6% which was the same level as in March. It is now not just in London where this is happening as 48% of postcodes noted an increase which is the highest proportion for a decade. This is due to low interest rates, shortage of property and a strengthening economy.
This may surprise people, but Mario Draghi may well be forced into actually making some radical policies sooner rather than later. The inflation reading, due out on 30th April, is important as a lower-than-expected reading could finally force Draghi into following up and trying to help the economy. If it comes in as expected, then the ECB can continue to play for time.
Image: © slimmer_jimmer / photopin