Home > Resource Hub > Daily Market News > Today sees the most significant Non-Farm Payroll of recent years

Today sees the most significant Non-Farm Payroll of recent years

Today sees the most significant Non-Farm Payroll of recent years

In yet another not so Super Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) revealed that interest rates could stay nailed to the ground till as late as 2017. As a result, Sterling took a nosedive following Mark Carney’s comments which came as a slight shock to the markets as they had previously expected a possible rate hike towards the end of 2015 or beginning of 2016.

There now seems to be a divergence in thinking between the BoE and Fed, as the latter earlier in the week suggested a possibility of a US hike next month. Analysts had expected Carney to follow in a more similar suit as his US counterpart Janet Yellen, but his comments remained surprisingly dovish. Ian McCafferty remained as the single member to vote for a hike.

Manufacturing and Industrial figures for the UK are released prior to US Non-Farm payrolls and any readings below expectations could see GBPUSD push further down 1.51 levels.      

Non-farm Payrolls takes centre-stage today after hints from Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are that a December rate hike is very much on the table. Traders are bracing themselves as a strong report today, expected to come in at 180,000 which would be an improvement on 142,000 last month, could result in the FOMC raising interest rates in December. This would have a significant knock-on impact across the financial world, with implications for not only the US Dollar and Treasuries, but other factors further afield such as Emerging Markets currencies and global stock markets.

Traders are also watching out for the average hourly earnings which the Fed would be looking at as ideally picking up more than the +0.2% month on month that is expected. Also watch for improved figures in unemployment which is forecast at 5.1% again and the participation rate which is at 62.4 currently.

After benefitting from traders dumping Sterling yesterday, the Euro takes a spectator’s seat today with no data releases of significance. Any price action is likely to be determined from UK and US releases.

Data to watch: 9.30am UK manufacturing production & UK trade balance. 1.30pm US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (Oct), Average Hourly Earnings (Year on Year) (Oct)

Share this case study
Set yourself up in minutes, make payments the same day: it’s free, easy and without obligation.