Which currency will end the week on a good note?
Yesterday was dominated by the UK retail sales, which were stronger than expected, with the trend just shy of 5%. In theory this would add weight to the argument for an interest rate rise. Despite this, some economists have pushed back their forecast for the first rate hike from Q4 15 to Q1 16.
Today sees significant data releases in the form of:
- 07:00 German GDP – already released and coming in as expected
- 13:30 US Consumer Price Index Data (CPI)
- 13:30 Canadian Consumer Price Data (CPI)
However data releases can be forecast and expectations made, the big market movers today are likely to be the speeches from:
- The ECB’s President Mario Draghi
- The Bank of England’s Mark Carney
- The US Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen
- The Bank of Japan’s Haruhiko Kuroda
All of whom will be speaking at the ECB forum on central banking. Although these talks are outside of their official scheduled duties, the market will still be hanging on their every word in order to form a better judgement of likely monetary policy moves.
With talks between the Greek and EU finance ministers still failing to find any viable solutions, GBP/EUR is very likely to end the week on a high and continue into next week.
US inflation data could well bring USD a little strength this afternoon and pare back the gains of GBP against the US Dollar this week.
Monday’s UK Bank Holiday will mean GBP is traded fairly lightly at the beginning of next week. Indeed, with far fewer GBP buyers in the market we could see a temporary dip in GBP value until we resume trading on Tuesday.
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