Posts
GBPThe Pound slipped lower yesterday morning in what looked to be to start of a slow day. The Ulster Unionists made no indication they would accept the Withdrawal Agreement and therefore there was little chance that key Conservative MPs would revert to accepting the deal. There was some speculation that…
GBPThe Pound rose last Friday afternoon on speculation that the Ulster Unionists were moving closer to supporting the Withdrawal Deal. The government reiterated that the Article 50 extension would be lengthy if the deal was not passed, increasing pressure on Conservative MPs to vote for the deal. The Pound closed…
GBPThe Bank of England’s Jonathan Haskel stated that he’d need evidence of higher inflation to convince him to vote to raise interest rates and expressed concerns over the risks to labour-market strength. Despite the dovish rhetoric, the Sterling impact was limited as the market was distracted by political developments. Choppy…
GBPPhilip Hammond delivered the government’s Spring budget in the run-up to the No-Deal vote. UK GDP growth forecast for 2019 dropped to 1.2% from 1.6%, but lower borrowing forecasts and stronger wages growth negated any negative Sterling impact. The market assumption in the run-up to voting was that ‘no-deal’ would…
GBPUK Manufacturing output registered a 0.8% increase in January, bouncing back from a 0.7% decline in December. GDP recovered 0.5% in January for a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, up from 1.0% in December. But who listens to the data when we have Brexit? Attorney General Geoffrey Cox was the news…
GBPSterling remained extremely volatile yesterday morning as the Brexit rumour-mill churned and speculation that Theresa May could delay or downgrade today’s meaningful vote in the House of Commons and risk being deposed. The Pound regained ground in the afternoon amid speculation that “modified text” had been agreed between the EU…
GBPWith the markets perceiving a more optimistic Brexit stance, Sterling continued to gain across the board. The gains were underpinned by further expectations that a ‘no-deal’ outcome would be ruled out within parliament and the trade-weighted index strengthened to a ten-month high. Significant increases in UK bond yields also helped…
GBPBank of England (BoE) Governor Carney’s testimony to the Treasury Select Committee was largely centred on the implications of a no-deal Brexit outcome but the market was unmoved, preferring to focus on political manoeuvring. The Pound continued its resurgence on expectations that Theresa May would confirm the lady is for…
GBPBank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney stated that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit posed the biggest risk to financial stability, although his stance on the medium-term outlook was little more upbeat. Theresa May was reported to have made good progress with EU President Juncker on amendments to the political declaration. Sterling…
GBPThe February CBI retail sales index held at 0, just below forecasts but there were expectations of a March recovery. Sterling dipped before lunchtime and another official UK source reported that a Brexit deal conclusion was unlikely this week. The market perception assumes that a ‘no-deal’ would be avoided through…