Final day for US dollar
The Pound will be under significant pressure today starting with the UK unemployment data that has already been released. Surveys expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 7.7% in the three months ended in August while the Claimant Count would drop by 25.0K. The actual data showed a decrease in the number of people claiming unemployment benefit of 42k and over the overall unemployment rate coming in at 7.7% as expected. This has given GBP a small boost. Remember it is the headline unemployment rates that the BoE are stating is their waypoint for future interest rate rises.
This morning also sees Eurozone consumer price data (inflation) – released at 10am (probably as you read this), the results are unlikely to have a big impact on the market.
Of course the big focus is still the US debt ceiling saga. In theory today is the final day on which an agreement can be reached. To date the US dollar has been relatively indifferent to the threat of a US default, demonstrating that the market has near total confidence that the default will be avoided.
Analysts forecasts range from an immediate drive towards 1.5600 should an agreement be reached, to an immediate drive towards 1.6500 if no agreement is reached before the end of European trading. The odds are that we will see USD strengthen but as we go into the final day there is no doubt that we will start to see some serious volatility in the market.