Sterling Up As Freedom Day Looms
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce the roadmap out of lockdown later on today.
‘Step 4’ of the easing of restrictions will only go ahead if all the criteria are met. This includes data on jabs numbers, vaccine effectiveness and hospital admissions. The data will be confirmed on 12 July at which point we should have a clearer picture.
If, as expected, he announces the end of social distancing, face masks and updated guidance on working from home then we should expect to see Sterling strengthen on the back of that.
In terms of outlook for the week, the main events are from central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision on Tuesday and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting on Wednesday will be keenly watched. In terms of UK data – the GDP figures on Friday are the main event – although we would expect the news from Boris to have more of an impact on the Pound.
Monday: Australia AiG construction, MI inflation gauge, retail sales, building approvals; China Caixin PMI services; Eurozone PMI services final, Sentix investor confidence; UK PMI services final; BoC business outlook survey.
Tuesday: Japan average cash earnings, household spending; RBA rate decision; Germany factory orders; UK Construction PMI; Germany ZEW economic sentiment, retail sales; US ISM services.
Wednesday: Australia AiG services; Germany industrial production; France trade balance; Swiss foreign currency reserves; Canada Ivey PMI; FOM minutes.
Thursday: Japan bank lending, current account, Eco watcher sentiment; Swiss unemployment rate; German trade balance; ECB meeting accounts; US jobless claims.
Friday: China CPI, PPI; UK GDP, trade balance, production; France industrial production; Canada employment.