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UK Rate Increase Expected in November

UK Rate Increase Expected in November

Expect another day of mixed messages on the markets today as the focus is on the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee and the US’ Federal Reserve.


Difficult to Predict

Both are releasing minutes from their latest meetings and, as its getting more difficult to predict what moves are going to be made by data alone, the markets will be looking for any possible hints regarding the timing of that all-important first rate hike.

The UK looks like it is in pole position for this “honour” and while it is widely expected that there will have been unanimous voting against the rate increase, it will be interesting to see if there are any dissenting voices.

In the UK, people tend to hint that the rate increase may happen in November or February. Yesterday’s CPI reading supports the view that we won’t see an increase until next year as inflation is currently at 1.6%, which gives the BoE a bit of time to consider its options.


GBP/USD struggles

The Pound struggled against the US Dollar (again) yesterday due to the weaker than expected UK CPI and stronger than expected US housing starts which came it at an increase of over 15%. Unfortunately, it looks like geopolitical risks are still going to affect the market…

There are bits of data out today but it will be the minutes that take precedence.

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