US Dollar Stumbles in Bullish Trade, Euro Buoyed by Positive Data Releases
Find out how the major currencies have been performing and what movement we could see in the days ahead with our weekly exchange rate update.
EUR – Euro Bolstered by Positive Data
The Euro got off to a positive start this week, with stability in the European banking sector, upbeat German data and hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric underpinning the single currency. A hotter-than-expected German consumer price index then offered another boost to the Euro, although these gains were dented at the end of the session as Eurozone inflation printed below forecast.
Germany’s latest industrial data is likely to be the primary focus for EUR investors next week. Will another expansion in factory orders help to boost the single currency?
Top EUR data releases:
Apr 5 EUR German Factory Orders (Feb)
Apr 5 EUR Eurozone Services PMI (Mar)
Apr 6 EUR German Industrial Production (Feb)
USD – US Dollar Undermined in Bullish Trade
The US Dollar trended broadly lower this week, as a bullish market mood limited demand for the safe-haven currency. The publication of the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicator for inflation, the core PCE price index, then left the USD exchange rates to limp over the finishing line, after printing below expectations.
Centre stage next week will be the latest US payroll figures. Could another above forecast print revive USD demand?
Top USD data releases:
Apr 3 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Apr 5 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Apr 7 USD Non Farm Payrolls (May)
GBP – Pound Wavers amid Limited Data
The Pound traded sideways through the bulk of this week’s session, as the absence of any notable UK data left the currency without any strong directional bias. An improving market mood in addition to an upwardly revised GDP print then helped Sterling close the week on a positive note.
Next week will see the publication of the UK’s latest PMI releases. If March’s finalised figures print with any surprises this could inject some volatility into Sterling.
Top GBP data releases:
Apr 3 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Apr 5 GBP Services PMI (Mar)
AUD – Australian Dollar Buoyed by Risk-On Impulse
The Australian Dollar trended broadly higher this week as an upbeat mood helped to underpin the risk-sensitive currency. It wasn’t all plain sailing for the ‘Aussie’ however, with a weaker-than-expected domestic inflation reading dragging on AUD exchange rates in the middle of the week.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) is expected to deliver another interest rate hike next week. But will some dovish forward guidance still lead to the ‘Aussie’ weakening against its peers?
Top AUD data releases:
Apr 4 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Apr 5 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Apr 6 AUD Balance of Trade (Feb)
ZAR – Rand Surges as SARB shocks with a 50bps hike
Domestic headwinds saw the South African Rand initially stumble this week. A prevailing risk-on mood then helped ZAR exchange rates rebound in the middle of the session. Before a shock 50bps interest rate hike from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) turbocharged the Rand at the end of the week.
A lull in notable domestic data is likely to see movement in the Rand driven by risk sentiment. If the mood continues to improve ZAR exchange rates may strengthen.
CAD – Canadian Dollar Bolstered by Rising Oil Prices
The Canadian Dollar accelerated this week. The commodity-linked currency finding support from a rebound in oil prices. A pullback in CAD exchange rates later in the week was then arrested after Canada’s latest GDP figures beat expectations.
Canada’s latest jobs report is likely to act as the main catalyst of movement for the ‘Loonie’ next week. Could an uptick in unemployment in March pull CAD exchange rates lower?
Top CAD data releases:
Apr 6 CAD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
Apr 6 CAD Ivey PMI (Mar)